On March 3, 2025, U.S. Republican Representative Mike Flood emphasized that Syria represents the most perplexing challenge for Israel in the medium term. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the direction of the new Syrian government and Turkey’s role in the region adds complexity to the situation. Flood further stated that Iran remains Israel’s greatest long-term strategic challenge.
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Turkey significantly expanded its influence in Syria. In the immediate aftermath, Turkish officials quickly restored diplomatic ties and engaged in meetings with leaders of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant group in the new Syrian government. These developments position Turkey as a key player in shaping Syria’s future, particularly in limiting Kurdish autonomy and facilitating the return of Syrian refugees.
Additionally, discussions are underway between newly appointed Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regarding a potential defense pact. This agreement could lead to the establishment of Turkish airbases in central Syria and the training of the new Syrian army by Turkish forces. Such collaboration could further shift regional power dynamics and solidify Turkey’s influence in Syria.
However, HTS’s involvement in the new government has raised concerns both regionally and internationally. While the group has sought to rebrand itself as a moderate entity in recent years, doubts remain about its true intentions and the potential impact on stability in Syria and the broader region.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to be a major factor in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The country has historically maintained strong ties with the former Assad regime and has significant military and political interests in Syria. Iran’s future role in the evolving Syrian landscape remains uncertain, presenting a strategic challenge for Israel and other key actors.
With these developments, Israel faces a complex situation in which it must navigate Syria’s uncertain future under its new government, Turkey’s growing influence, and the persistent threat posed by Iran. These factors require a careful and strategic approach to safeguard national security and maintain stability in the region.

Questions for Further Consideration:

1. How will the international community, particularly the United States and Europe, respond to Turkey’s increasing influence in post-Assad Syria?

2. What measures can Israel take to counterbalance Iran’s presence in Syria without escalating regional tensions?

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