Following the fall of the Syrian government, the Military Operation Administration, under the General Commander of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani, seized authority in Syria and declared a transitional government to govern until early March. Under this structure, Damascus has received HTS's Salvation Government Cabinet from Idlib province to operate the present transitional administration.

Since many Syrian government officials, Iranian-backed militias, and Lebanese Hezbollah members in Syria have gone into hiding in different areas, particularly in the Alawite-dominated provinces of Latakia and Tartous, they have initiated activities against the current Syrian government and authority. Consequently, Syria is likely to face a dangerous security situation in the near future. Additionally, unidentified fighters from Alawite areas, notably Latakia and Tartous, have reportedly disguised themselves in HTS military uniforms to invade homes, commit crimes including murder, theft, and looting, and tarnish the reputation of the Military Operation Administration.

With American mediation, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) leadership is seeking to negotiate and reach an understanding with armed groups affiliated with Türkiye. These factions have taken advantage of the current instability to launch attacks on SDF-held areas. The Syrian National Army (SNA) has established an operations room under the name Fajr al-Hurriya (Dawn of Freedom) and has successfully seized control of the Manbij district and Tel Rifaat sub-district, pushing SDF forces back to Raqqa and Hasakah provinces. As a result, the fate of the territories under SDF control in northeast Syria remains uncertain, with continued threats from Syrian armed groups and the Turkish military. The residents of these areas live in constant fear and anxiety.

It remains unclear how and by whom the territories controlled by opposition armed groups under Ahmed Uda, who is supported by Arab countries, are being administered in southern Syria. Additionally, no decision has been made regarding the governance of Suwayda province, whose population consists primarily of Druze communities.

Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani, met with several armed group commanders on December 20, 2024. During this meeting, it was concluded that all armed factions should be disbanded and incorporated into the newly established Syrian army, with none allowed to operate independently in Syria. In this context, Murhaf Abu Qasra, also known as Abu Hassan 600 or Hassan al-Hamawi, has been appointed as the Minister of Defense in the transitional administration. Originally from Halfaya village in Hama province, he previously led the HTS Military Council.

Several commanders and leaders of armed factions, including Faylaq al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam, did not attend the meeting and have not been assigned any ministerial or administrative roles in the transitional government.

Abu Mohammed al-Julani has exclusively appointed individuals from HTS or its supporters to occupy top government and administrative positions.

Questions for Further Consideration:

1. How will the international community respond to HTS-led governance in Syria, and what are the potential diplomatic consequences?
2. What impact will the restructuring of armed groups into a new Syrian army have on long-term stability and security in the region?

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